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1. Yellow Man 2012-10-26 11:13:52
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Yes I agree there is still room for rising in property price, but room is little. I guess for own use it's ok, for investment, no way. That's why I am going to sell one my properties now. Thanks for your previous advice 仲達! Very helpful!
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2. 亮劍 2012-10-26 11:23:41
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有道失敗乃成功之母，咁請問在 1997 年初，提出海量建屋計劃算唔算失敗？ 另一方面，在 2003 年初，將所有房屋及做地計劃急凍又算唔算失敗？ 現在樓市狂飆，CY被迫發癲啦，就來要做錯事，係度玩土地供應順週期都敢死！ 從上述兩個關鍵時刻政府應做或唔應做嘅例子得出教訓，97 年唔應該做嘅係增加土地供應，反而應該做嘅係收縮按揭，由其是對那些實力不足嘅上車客，或連三成首期都無又炒幾間嘅人，更應是重點針對及打擊的對象！ 而 03 年應該係做嘅係開始計劃開闢土地，以便數年後增加各式各樣樓宇供應，而對有固定收入嘅人仕，就鼓勵他們低吸上車安居咁先係正路！ 但現在 CY 完全無吸收到 97 年教訓，仲四周圍發掘土地起樓，咁幾年後當呢個樓市循環完左，請問你點收科？更加衰嘅係仲唔叫停九成按揭保險，咁同推人落火坑或接高價火棒有乜分別？我哋放眼望去，睇吓過幾年有幾多人，會因你 CY 今日這錯誤房屋政策付出代價。 我唔客氣都要講，你無從人哋或你自己嘅失敗經歷中吸取教訓，真係對唔住你呀媽，因為呢一句失敗乃成功之母---真係好應好應！
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3. 股友 2012-10-26 11:30:48
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一言蔽之：股市屢見接火棒，樓市穩坐釣魚船。 幾年前套樓買股的，真是一殼眼淚......現時恒指好似重返高位(比起07年根本一點也不高)，但有不少前幾年熱炒的概念細價股，而家連高峰期一半都無......
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4. 上善若水 2012-10-26 11:35:41
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要別人接火棒，必須讓別人還抱有期望，覺得安全才行。例如07年恆指衝上3萬點時，不少人期望短期內會見4萬。油價147美元一桶時，大家都預計會見200，若無幾個貌似合理的理由，怎能令人高位接火棒？ 回歸基本步，邊際供求決定價格。現時及短期未來需求方主要來自用家，供應方將來自投資者獲利出售、新樓供應。投資者現時防守力甚高，低息、低借貸，但是一旦出現黑天鵝，投資者絕對不會惜貨。至於新供應，眾所週知，將會越來越多。此消彼長！ 低息、低借貸率估計會較長期持續，那是否意味著期間樓價可持續上升？恐怕不會！
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5. 資產主義 2012-10-26 11:51:54
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熱錢湧港，只係剛開始，廢紙搶實物，升勢持續。
最新目標價：
恆指：25000
匯豐：$98
長實：$132
新地：$138
恆地：$72
新世界：$23
信和：$25
港鐵：$38
領匯：$54
中人壽：$36
中移：$98
友邦：$45
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6. 亮劍 2012-10-26 13:25:42
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保險嘅原意，是一種分攤風險嘅工具，例如一間保險公司受左一百條船嘅保險，無理由一百隻船齊齊沉曬咁黑仔掛，如果真係有日黑成咁，呢間保險公司都抵執啦！ 但按揭保險就唔係咁講啦，市道好樓價升，每個個案淨執緊係開心到震，但到樓市大跌嗰陣會點？ 美國两房係點死俾倒完整答案，通常要動用到按揭保險嘅情況都唔會係細單嘢，樓市大跌亦唔會一年半載就會完，仲有唔會係單一事件咁致惨！ 大圍樓市大跌五成，沙田第一城要跌六成，咁太古城會唔會無事仲有得升？ 樓市失速狂跌，阿水來買樓？無買家就形成惡性循環，加埋SSD 焗人輸多啲，經濟仲唔死直、薪金仲唔大跌、失業率仲唔升到爸爸声？ 先先就十單八單要麻煩按保公司，玩玩吓日日成幢快勞等着開工處理，賠都賠到你失魂！ 睇吓兩房瀨屎瀨尿要美國政府拯救，就知按保係幾咁兒戲，幾咁揾笨！ 唔好忘記美國樓市只係跌幾成咋，都可以咁大鑊，換作美樓好似香港咁跌七成，真係無眼睇！ 唔好唔記得港樓七成止跌仲係阿爺幫忙先係呢個價，否則----- 現在要買按保嘅買家，只要放低一成就可成為業主，風險大到無倫，而香港樓市跌一成真係閒過立秋，隨時一個月同你超額完成！ 現在按保公司仲喺度輸送彈藥，俾啲唔夠實力嘅買家去燈蛾摸火；去做炮灰真係衰到無朋友，加埋直接同間接吹大樓市泡沫，兩罪齊犯罪名成立，係咪要推呢班友出午門斬首，為民除害？
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7. 泡沫 2012-10-26 14:45:41
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泡沫成形, 泡沫爆破, 皆因信貸. 成也按揭, 敗也按揭. [按保則火上加油] [滙控估足價俾你; 幫你變成害你]
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8. RAN 2012-10-26 15:13:18
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既然沒有銀主盤，又沒有劈價沽貨??? 如果見到的話, 就己爆左啦! 氣球幾時爆? 唔爆你知咩!
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9. 氣球 2012-10-26 15:56:25
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銀行都估足價, 佢地咁大間, 唔通會呃人咩. 咁咪去馬囉. 真係爆煲, 咪一齊.
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10. 教訓 2012-10-26 15:58:48
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11. 亮劍 2012-10-26 16:32:43
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講到銀行估價，真係氣上心頭，你話啲買家勇，原來銀行仲勇，呢排間唔中都上網查吓我啲親朋好友啲磚頭值幾多，嗰啲網上銀行估價個個星期都唔同，鬼咩----總體成交宗數又少左，舊客每月還錢又大部分係本，銀行大水浸，最緊要係有羊按保公司包底，估高啲個價，做成生意都易啲，又借得多啲出街，輸左有人睇數，唔濫借就笨！ 按揭保險公司喺現在緊話做好風險管理，包無事！ 但AIG 點反艇？唔該醒少少當幫忙！
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12. 玄同 2012-10-26 17:02:57
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同意 樓主所言: 股市屢見接火棒，樓市穩坐釣魚船。
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13. mini 2012-10-26 19:21:15
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14. Peter Paker 2012-10-26 20:36:55
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With implementations of latest SSD and 15% non-HK-resident stamp duty, I will have the following predictions:
1) Supply and circulation of 2nd hand properties will be much tightened, which will in turn drive up property prices.
Non-HK residents who are holding HK properties lose incentive to sell properties even at profits. This is because if they sold the current properties, they would be unab... le to buy back. Circulation will be further tightened.
2) Under the record-low vacancy rate of 4.4% (i.e. insufficent supply ), the properties available for LEASE will be shrinked. I strongly believe that the rental charge will increase significantly. Every family needs a house. If a family cannot buy due to SSD & higher prices, more people will turn to rent. Given very insufficient houses in HK, competitions for rental properties by teneants will be keen and intense. Rental yields are becoming more attractive. Only the rich people are able to buy more properties and enjoy both of rental yields and capital appreciation.
Several months later, I am afraid the available rental properties will be very very scared. If the landlords refuses to renew the lease, tenants may find it very hard to find another rental properties;
3) 1st-hand properties will face fewer competitions during sales processes. Demands are strong but circulation of 2nd hand properties are locked up. I think these measures are favourable to property sales.
4) New 15% stamp duty targeting non-HK-residents is useless, because according to Centaline's statistics, purchasing force from PRC is decreasing below 15% - 18% from 30%. Recent property boost is indeed due to local HK purchasing forces. New measures are useless in detering hot market conditions. In conclusion, these new measures cannot cool down the property market. It will further boost up property prices (both of 1st and 2nd hand properties).
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15. 回地產炒家 2012-10-26 21:08:20
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peter parker 你廢話連篇，死性不改，你繼續死頂唱好都冇用，個市就算唔大跌都會小跌，唔小跌都唔會再升，你重想害人接火棒？
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16. 仲達 2012-10-26 21:24:27
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多謝亮劍兄及Peter Paker兄賜教。 本人下星期將會離港旅行，惟仲達言將會照常每天刊登，遺憾的是下星期未能回覆大家的提問，還望見諒。 剛推出的樓市新政，有待觀察，不宜在下星期刊登的文章談及，當然如果大家希望留言，是無任歡迎。
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17. 法子 2012-10-26 23:27:24
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仲達, 玩得開心啲. Peter, 分析得幾好, reasoning is clear!
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18. 仲達 2012-10-27 00:08:36
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雖然預先寫，但下星期的文章全屬用心之作，可以稍作預告，吊下大家的胃口(笑)： 有關乎大部份打工仔的、有樓市警號、有新盤銷售、更有之前備受好評的洗腦樓市！ 希望大家喜歡，多作回應！
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19. Peter Paker 2012-10-27 00:12:50
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To: 15/F Please note the bull property market is driven by the below factors: 1) Prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment; 2) Insufficient supply to meet strong demands from both of HK local residents and PRC mainlanders. We have no new land supplies to alleviate the strong demands. That's what Franklin Lam and CY said at the TVB interview (講清講楚); Per Centaline's statistics, 中原地產研究部高級聯席董事黃良昇指出，2012年第3季一手中小型住宅市場，內地個人買家佔宗數及金額比例，分別按年下跌14.4及16.0個百分點，下降至21.1%及22.2%。一年間，由三成半以上的水平，回落至近二成的水平。隨著樓價持續向上，本地換樓客湧現，繼續攤薄內地買家比例。第3季數字按季分別下跌0.1及1.8個百分點，連跌二個季度，預期第4季數字持續下跌。 第3季二手中小型住宅市場，；內地個人買家佔宗數及金額比例，按年分別下跌1.4及2.8個百分點，分別降至8.2%及9.0%。整體中小型住市場，內地個人買家佔宗數及金額比例，按年分別下跌0.4及2.3個百分點，分別降至10.4%及12.0%。 Per the above paragraphs from Centaline, local HK people are the major forces to boost up HK property market. PRC buyers are just some supplementary forces, because they just occupy around 20% of purchasing powers. 3) Income gap between the rich and the poor, low unemployment rates, etc; Do you think whether the new government measures do something to deal with the above fundamental factors?? If not, what do you think about the future property prices??
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20. Yellow Man 2012-10-27 00:21:22
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But Parker, 中原陳永傑said the property price will drop... 施永青said no effect... Do you think they are just blowing up and down signals to boost transactions?
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21. Ricky 2012-10-27 00:53:28
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多謝CY, CY份人係順我者生,逆我者亡,做事不擇手段(睇佢點對付唐豬),政府吹晒風要推低樓價.你地日日玩破頂成交,佢唔郁你顏面何存.由QE3出台至今,有成個月俾你揀客玩追價,走唔切唔好怪人喇!(連博士都轉晒口風啦) 我就剛剛以超高價沽出大部份物業(剩番自住個間),而家坐定定係度,乜都唔使做,等個市跌執平貨.....呢舖真係多謝CY,嘻嘻!
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22. Peter Paker 2012-10-27 01:02:31
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I would take Sze's views. Per the news, ChanWing Kit's words are to frighten landlords to sell their flats, simply because of governemnt intervention measures. Due to SSD, property agents face very serious shortage of properties available for sales and leases, affecting property transaction volumes and agency businesses. If he can successfully frightens the landlords, agents will have more businesses to do. This is Chan's rationales behind his words. Hope 仲達 to have a nice trip. I will also go to Hokkaido for leisure.
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23. Peter Paker 2012-10-27 01:19:14
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Rationales behind 15% additional stamp duty to be charged to non-HK residents: Due to the QE3, this makes RMB to start appreciation. Over these 1 - 2 weeks, RMB rose from 81.3 to 79.x. It seems that the appreciation trends will commence soon. HK government has much concerns about RMB appreciation. From the perspective of PRC mainlanders, RMB appreciations will make HK$ assets (e.g. properties) cheaper than before, in terms of RMB. This may foster their desires to buy more HK$ assets. Similar observations happened 1 year ago. During the period of RMB appreciation from 88 to 81, this was the peak period of PRC people purchasing HK properties. Per Centaline statistics, mainlanders occupied > 30% transactions of 1st hand properties and 20% transactions of 2nd hand properties. Per my pure estimate, the new measure of 15% extra stamp duty is solely aiming at deterring extra purchasing power due to recent RMB appreciations. However, I have one question. Both of PRC and HK have strict intervention measures. Will these purchasing power move to Macau or other neighbour areas??
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24. Yellow Man 2012-10-27 07:45:12
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The policy seems to have 2 sided effects: cutting the demand and at the same time cutting the supply.
I think the property price will drop slightly for a short while or at least the owners won't be so ambitious at their selling price. However, I guess the owners will be less willing to sell because there aren't many better investment alternatives in the market. The property developers will have less desire in building houses. They would rather let the land "sun bath" so supply will have pressure...
This policy affects the property agents most, and then developers. 2nd hand market price won't be affected (or just slightly) but the transaction will fall sharply. Hence, no real use in helping HK users in buying their property for living. After a while, the property price will go 乾升 again, until one day we see enough supply.
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25. 回 parker 2012-10-27 08:05:14
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20%內地買家是超大數目，如果無此羣用超高價、不問價的人入币推高，現時楼價會低兩成。
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26. TRON 2012-10-27 08:23:51
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27. 80後銀行從業員 2012-10-27 10:19:13
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Peter Parker 同意. 我也認為澳門樓市可以短暫受惠, 然而澳門的政策風險亦存在. 反而國內雖然積極防止熱錢流入, 但國內資金也是聰明的, 既然在香港炒樓如此困難, 倒不如回流國內. 所以國內樓市應會不俗. 人民幣升值是為大選和十八大造勢而己, 並不是一個潮流. 人民銀行中間價仍在6.30-6.305之間(兌美元). 但CNH(香港人幣市場)己炒升至6.24, 但根據過往經驗情況並不能持久, 無須此時大量買入人幣.
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28. 亮劍 2012-10-27 10:22:13
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現在坊間好多時用國語拼音來界定人家是否强國買家，超錯！ 我識唔少揸住三粒星永久居民身分證嘅國內移民，如果佢哋去買樓，你會當佢係港人定外來人仕？ 大陸同胞來港買樓點解俾人誤解，將影響放到咁大呢，我想係因為狗咬人唔係新聞、要人咬狗先係新聞呢個道理掛。 其實政府應掌握有幾多真正揸三粒星，幾多人揸護照，又幾多人用公司名義來買住宅。 呢啲數据我好希望政府開誠佈公，以正視聽！
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29. Mortgage 2012-10-27 10:41:44
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To: 80後銀行從業員 Hold the same view as yours on CNY in short term. We should be aware of the risk in longer term once CNY is qualified to be pegged by HKD in some extent if we put a heavy bet on the currency. To: 亮劍 Cannot agree more that the property agencies should make this piece of information more transparent.
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30. 樓市港匯替死鬼 2012-10-27 10:46:35
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曾瘟神，你夠胆就對正下藥，修正港元掛鉤貨幣政策，你斜斜膊唔做好財政屍，管理好港幣跟美元XX問題，百物騰貴，港元購買力大減，輸入通漲你唔理，而稍有自我防禦港元XX能力去買層樓，你就單向打壓，。。。同你講道理唔聽，不如玩埋進口物價ＳＳＤ啦，入口貨價頭一年ＳＳＤ稅３０％，如樓價ＳＳＤ計算法好唔好，打擊進口物價推高本地通漲！。。。依家買條廁紙都比上年貴３０％！ 你懂得用港幣購買力問題去想方法，先至好坐財爺個位，否則你同你老闆都係港人瘟神！！
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31. Mortgage 2012-10-27 10:49:30
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To: Peter Paker I guess the SD on non-resident aimming at PEs and hedge funds which is flooding to HK since 2008, not the PRC buyers as the media interprets.
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32. 亮劍 2012-10-27 10:57:01
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其實中、美兩地產代理集團，亦可整理那些買賣合約，買家用身分證、護照或公司，係唔係香港人，邊個係外國人大陸人，點會唔知？ 現在佢哋簡單用國語拼音界定是否强國人，實在以偏概全，太武斷太兒戲啦！
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33. Mortgage 2012-10-27 10:59:45
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To 樓市港匯替死鬼: Usually I encourage ppl who express views based on grim outcomes to have themselves to understand the whole picture. Do you really believe we would be better off (or survive) amind floating HKD? What's the factor able to support HKD in long term? Can you tell me?
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34. 陳大春 2012-10-27 11:12:14
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Re: 新SSD及BSD 二手樓價向下調有可能由一手樓的地產發展商減價開始。另外，如有地拍賣，地產商必定會以報服式出價投地。如地皮回收或下限價成交必定會令影響二手樓業主叫價。簡易來說，政府現在要即時令樓市冷卻，要比市民知道政府「要做野」及「有做野」，如果政府不故一切要打壓樓市何其容易。
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35. 中國人 2012-10-27 11:21:16
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何不跟人民幣掛鉤呢？ 人仔國際化已成大局，港元掛人仔有何不可！最少可以平衡物價！（國產貨,包括平衡國內炒港樓兌換溢價）
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36. 中國人 2012-10-27 11:31:29
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再者，港幣人仔掛鉤，即使樓價跌，但起碼港元唔跌，保持日常所需物價穩定，而且香港沒有自產貿易及提高內消意欲等等，唔見得需要跟美元低水政策囉！
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37. 盼三年 2012-10-27 11:42:37
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跟美元XX最少到２０１５年，香港人點頂，港匯跟遴近亞洲貨幣點撑！！ 港人年年加１０％人工都唔掂，連亞婆亞公資產審查額都唔加，財神定瘟神，大家心照啦！（老人家買個四方位就黍都唔只１８萬啦）
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38. 法子 2012-10-27 12:37:47
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"蔡涯棉強調，本身絕對支持興建體育城，不過，由於本港房屋問題嚴峻，欠缺建屋土地，又必須儘快解決年輕人「上樓」難題，而啟德作為「熟地」，可短期內建到住宅，" 這正是典型的"頭痛醫頭"的心路歷程, 稱不上是"長遠策略".
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39. mini 2012-10-27 13:06:22
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| 9. mini2012-10-27 13:05:29 |
| Before 1997 July 1, we could NOT experience/predict the influences from the China's accession to WTO in 2001/ 911 Attacks in New York; individual travellers/buyers from our motherland since 2003/1Q; two (2) regional /illegal wars made by the U.S.; RMB appreciations since 2005 July; extremely low interest rates proudced in advanced countries: U.S.A, U.K., Europe, Japan due to financial crisis and problems of credits freeze... Also, the by-products we can see the huge public debts, say over $15 trillion USD debts of 300 million population; over $12 trillion USD of 123 million japanese, but elderly people are more than younger ones & still living under continuous earthquakes / superstorms in future. On the other side, European are still doing some calculations how to solve the national debts / bottlenecks in the Southern Europe... In the long term, the New SSD/BSD may let the developers to stay focus on single family detached homes for the super rich in 31 capitals of provinces, or the businessmen of SME in mainland, overseas chinese from capitals of 10 Southeast Asia countries and/ or advanced countries because our country policies will keep lifting up the wages for mainland chinese in the next 20 ~ 30 years. The New SSD/BSD may let the market stay focus on the industrial/commercial buildings, more people may need to pay more rents for the existing buildings. |
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