The first half of the year started well, with the property market showing a gradual upward trend. Many KOLs and major real estate agencies raised their full-year property price forecasts to 5% to 10%, with some optimistic predictions reaching 15% to 20%. However, the situation has changed. By year-end, the roughly 7% gain recorded in the first half could be entirely erased.
The central government has implemented investment restrictions and taxation measures for Chinese residents, essentially halting the trend of mainland residents investing in Hong Kong properties. Without such funds entering the market, new developments can only sell about 150 units per week, and the top ten secondary housing estates have seen only 4 to 8 transactions per week for over three months.
Even the most outspoken KOL at the beginning of the year have quietly reduced the number of their branch offices recently, and the 
predictions of a 20% increase in property price for the whole year are no longer mentioned in the market. The market is now worried that a deeper correction has begun. The first phase of the decline saw a 30% drop, followed by a 10% rebound. Now, we are entering the second phase of the decline. How much will it ultimately fall? Even the most conservative estimate suggests that it will fall below the previous low.
Recent secondary market transactions have been sparse, but prices have already fallen by approximately 3%, a figure not yet reflected in the adjusted property price index. Consequently, many owners are unwilling to lower prices, resulting in units unsold for an extended period.
Currently, primary market transactions have decreased, so there are no longer buyers who are unable to buy new properties and then turn to the secondary market. This explains the persistently sluggish transaction volume in the secondary housing market. Therefore, pragmatic owners selling secondary properties should lower their asking prices to secure transactions sooner; otherwise, they may face much steeper price-cuts once weak market sentiment becomes more widespread.
